While TradingView is a widely popular and user-friendly platform offering a comprehensive suite of charting tools, indicators, and drawing tools, its suitability depends heavily on your specific analytical needs. For fundamental analysis, you’ll need to supplement it with other resources. Consider dedicated cryptocurrency data aggregators like CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap for comprehensive market data, including historical prices, volume, market capitalization, and circulating supply. These provide context often missing in purely technical analyses.
For on-chain analysis, which examines blockchain transaction data to gauge network activity and investor sentiment, tools like Glassnode, IntoTheBlock, and Santiment are invaluable. They offer metrics like exchange inflows/outflows, whale activity, and network growth that can reveal trends not readily apparent on price charts alone.
Beyond these, specialized tools cater to specific needs. For automated trading strategies, consider platforms with robust API access, allowing for integration with custom algorithms and backtesting. Remember that no single tool provides a complete picture. Effective crypto analysis often requires combining data from multiple sources and employing a multi-faceted approach encompassing technical, fundamental, and on-chain analysis.
Is crypto riskier than stocks?
The volatility of cryptocurrencies far surpasses that of traditional stocks. While stocks are subject to regulatory oversight and investor protections, the decentralized nature of crypto means it operates largely outside these frameworks. This lack of regulation translates to significantly higher risk, but also potentially higher rewards. Think of it like this: the potential for massive gains is balanced by the equally significant possibility of complete loss. There’s no FDIC insurance here; your investment is entirely your responsibility.
Risk Factors Beyond Volatility: Beyond the inherent price swings, crypto investments expose you to several other significant risks. These include: security breaches on exchanges or in your personal wallets, rug pulls (where developers abandon a project, taking investor funds), and sophisticated scams targeting both novice and experienced investors. The decentralized nature, while attractive to many, creates a Wild West environment where due diligence is paramount.
Minority investors are particularly vulnerable to these scams, often lacking the resources or knowledge to fully vet projects. Scammers prey on the promise of quick riches, exploiting the hype surrounding new tokens or initiatives. This highlights the crucial need for thorough research and a healthy dose of skepticism before investing in any cryptocurrency project. Understanding whitepapers, examining team credentials, and assessing community engagement are all vital steps in mitigating risk.
Diversification is key: Even with careful due diligence, the inherent volatility of crypto demands a diversified portfolio. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket; spread your investments across different cryptocurrencies and asset classes to reduce your overall risk exposure. Remember, past performance is not indicative of future results, and the crypto market is exceptionally unpredictable.
What are the risk assessment of cryptocurrency?
Cryptocurrency risk assessment isn’t a simple checklist; it’s a dynamic process demanding constant vigilance. Five key areas demand scrutiny: customers, products, transactions, geographies, and delivery channels. Customer Risk goes beyond simple transaction volume analysis. We need to profile clients, identifying high-risk individuals or entities involved in illicit activities like money laundering or terrorist financing. Sophisticated KYC/AML procedures are crucial, alongside ongoing monitoring for suspicious activity patterns.
Product Risk encompasses the inherent volatility of different cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin’s price swings are notoriously unpredictable, but lesser-known altcoins can be far riskier. Understanding the technology behind each asset is critical – evaluating code quality, security audits, and the project’s overall viability. Smart contract vulnerabilities, for example, pose significant threats.
Transaction Risk involves analyzing the potential for fraud, hacking, and operational failures. The decentralized nature of crypto presents unique challenges. We must consider exchange security, wallet vulnerabilities, and the risks associated with various transaction types, including custodial and non-custodial solutions. Insurance policies or self-insurance strategies are necessary considerations.
Geographic Risk is vital; regulatory landscapes vary wildly. Operating in jurisdictions with lax regulations exposes you to higher legal and operational risks. Sanctions compliance, especially with OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) and similar bodies, is paramount. Understanding local laws and adapting accordingly is non-negotiable.
Delivery Channel Risk encompasses the platforms used for trading and storing crypto. Exchange hacks are unfortunately common, highlighting the need for due diligence when selecting platforms. Consider factors like security protocols, insurance coverage, and regulatory compliance. Diversification across multiple exchanges and secure wallets is a key risk mitigation strategy.
How do you analyze crypto investments?
Analyzing crypto investments requires a multifaceted approach. Thorough due diligence is paramount. This begins with a deep dive into the project’s white paper, scrutinizing its roadmap, tokenomics, and technology. Don’t just skim; understand the underlying technology and its potential applications.
Team assessment is crucial. Investigate the team’s experience, expertise, and track record. Look for evidence of past successes and a strong commitment to the project. Are the key personnel publicly identifiable and accountable? Transparency is key.
Community engagement is a strong indicator of a project’s health and longevity. An active and supportive community often translates to a more resilient project. Examine social media activity, forum discussions, and the overall sentiment surrounding the cryptocurrency. Look for genuine enthusiasm and constructive feedback, not just hype.
Tokenomics play a vital role. Analyze the token’s supply, distribution, and utility. Understand how the token’s value is generated and sustained. A well-designed tokenomic model is essential for long-term success. Consider factors such as inflation rates, token burning mechanisms, and staking rewards.
Market analysis is also critical. Stay informed about broader market trends, regulatory developments, and technological advancements that may impact the cryptocurrency’s value. Diversification is your friend; avoid putting all your eggs in one basket.
Finally, remember that risk management is essential. Cryptocurrency investments are inherently volatile, so only invest what you can afford to lose. Set realistic expectations and avoid emotional decision-making. Regularly review your portfolio and adjust your strategy as needed.
Which analysis is best for cryptocurrency?
For cryptocurrency, fundamental analysis reigns supreme. It’s not just about charting; it’s about understanding the intrinsic value of a digital asset. This involves a rigorous examination of various factors, combining quantitative and qualitative assessments.
Quantitative metrics delve into the hard numbers:
- Market capitalization: A crucial indicator of a coin’s overall size and influence.
- Trading volume: Reveals market liquidity and investor interest.
- Circulating supply vs. total supply: Understanding the tokenomics is key to projecting future price movements.
- Transaction fees: High fees can signal network congestion and impact usability.
- Hashrate (for Proof-of-Work coins): A measure of network security and resilience.
Qualitative factors are equally critical, offering a nuanced perspective:
- Technology: Is the underlying blockchain innovative and scalable? Does it address a real-world problem?
- Team: The experience and reputation of the development team are crucial indicators of long-term viability.
- Community: A strong, active community fosters growth and adoption.
- Adoption rate: Real-world usage and integration into existing systems are essential for sustained growth.
- Regulatory landscape: Government regulations and legal frameworks significantly impact a cryptocurrency’s prospects.
By meticulously evaluating these quantitative and qualitative aspects, fundamental analysis empowers investors to identify undervalued cryptocurrencies with strong growth potential. It’s about uncovering the true worth, not just chasing short-term price swings.
Where is the best place to analyze crypto?
Unlocking crypto’s potential requires insightful analysis. While numerous platforms offer data, discerning the best tools for your specific needs is crucial. For Total Locked Value (TVL) across DeFi protocols, DeFi Llama remains a gold standard, providing a comprehensive overview of liquidity within various ecosystems. Advanced charting and technical indicator analysis are vital; platforms like TradingView (not mentioned in the original prompt, but essential) excel here, offering customizable charts and a wealth of indicators for identifying potential entry and exit points. Sentiment analysis is equally important. While IntoTheBlock provides valuable signals, consider supplementing this with on-chain metrics from Glassnode or Santiment to gain a more holistic view of market sentiment and potential price movements. Portfolio tracking tools are plentiful, and Cointree’s offering is just one example; consider your specific needs when choosing – features like tax reporting and performance analytics should be key decision factors. Finally, Chainalysis offers invaluable live market intelligence, particularly concerning large transactions and on-chain activity that can signal significant market shifts. Remember that diverse data sources are key; combining insights from multiple platforms is essential for a well-rounded understanding of the crypto market. Don’t rely solely on one tool; cross-referencing information is vital to making informed investment decisions.
What is the biggest risk in crypto?
The biggest risk in crypto remains security breaches. Fraudsters actively target individuals and exchanges alike, employing sophisticated techniques to compromise online wallets and cryptocurrency exchanges. This involves phishing scams, malware, and exploiting vulnerabilities in platform security. The consequences can be devastating, resulting in the complete loss of your crypto assets, as your private keys – essentially your passwords to your crypto – are stolen. Protecting your private keys is paramount; never share them, utilize strong, unique passwords, and favor hardware wallets for increased security. Remember that “not your keys, not your crypto” is a fundamental principle. Furthermore, thoroughly vet any platform before entrusting your funds, researching its security measures and reputation within the crypto community. The decentralized nature of crypto offers advantages, but it also means individual responsibility for security is amplified.
Beyond direct hacking, rug pulls represent a significant threat, particularly in the DeFi space. These are scams where developers create a project, attract investment, and then abscond with the funds. Due diligence is crucial to mitigate this risk; research the team behind a project, audit reports, and community sentiment. Smart contract vulnerabilities are another concern. Exploits in the code underpinning DeFi protocols can allow attackers to drain liquidity pools or manipulate prices, leading to significant financial losses for users. Therefore, diversification across reputable platforms and protocols can reduce exposure to these inherent risks within the ecosystem.
How to do risk management in crypto?
Cryptocurrency risk management isn’t about avoiding risk entirely – it’s about making informed decisions. The process begins with meticulous Risk Identification, going beyond simply listing potential threats. Consider market volatility, regulatory uncertainty, technological vulnerabilities (like smart contract exploits or exchange hacks), and the ever-present threat of scams and phishing attacks. Analyze the interconnectedness of these risks; a regulatory crackdown might exacerbate market volatility, for instance.
Risk Analysis dives deeper. Quantify each identified risk. What’s the probability of a specific event occurring? What’s the potential financial impact (loss of principal, missed opportunities)? Utilize tools like scenario planning to explore “what-if” scenarios under different market conditions. Don’t underestimate the impact of operational risks – security breaches within your own systems or human error. Consider the potential for rug pulls and exit scams, understanding the team behind a project is paramount.
Risk Assessment synthesizes the identification and analysis phases. Prioritize risks based on their likelihood and potential impact. A high-probability, high-impact risk demands immediate attention, while a low-probability, low-impact risk might require less stringent mitigation. This is where you create a clear risk profile for your crypto investments or activities. Consider using a risk matrix to visualize and understand your exposure.
Your Treatment Plan isn’t just a list of actions. It’s a dynamic strategy. For high-priority risks, implement robust mitigation techniques: diversification (across different cryptocurrencies and asset classes), strong security protocols (hardware wallets, two-factor authentication), and due diligence (thoroughly researching projects before investing). For lower-priority risks, you might opt for risk acceptance or transfer (e.g., insurance). Regular review and adjustment of this plan are crucial, adapting to the ever-evolving crypto landscape.
Remember that effective crypto risk management is iterative. Continuously monitor your portfolio, stay informed about market trends and technological advancements, and regularly reassess your risk profile and mitigation strategies. Staying adaptable and informed is your best defense.
How to calculate risk in crypto?
Calculating risk in crypto trading involves a multifaceted approach beyond a simple entry/stop-loss comparison. While the risk/reward ratio (R/R), calculated as (entry price – stop-loss price) / (take-profit price – entry price), provides a basic framework, it’s insufficient for a comprehensive risk assessment.
Consider incorporating volatility measures like Average True Range (ATR) or Bollinger Bands to contextualize your stop-loss placement. A wider ATR suggests higher volatility and potentially necessitates a wider stop-loss, thus impacting your R/R. Similarly, Bollinger Bands can help identify overbought/oversold conditions, influencing your risk appetite.
Furthermore, position sizing is crucial. Never risk more than a small percentage (e.g., 1-2%) of your overall portfolio on a single trade, regardless of your perceived R/R. This mitigates the impact of potential losses and prevents catastrophic drawdowns.
Beyond individual trade risk, consider broader market risk. Analyze the overall crypto market sentiment, regulatory landscape, and technological advancements impacting your chosen asset. Diversification across different cryptocurrencies and asset classes helps reduce overall portfolio risk.
Finally, backtesting your trading strategies using historical data is paramount. This allows you to evaluate the effectiveness of your R/R approach and identify potential weaknesses before deploying capital in live markets. Consider using metrics like Sharpe ratio or Sortino ratio to assess the risk-adjusted returns of your strategy over time.
How to tell if a crypto is worth investing in?
Determining if a cryptocurrency is a worthwhile investment is tricky, especially for beginners. Unlike stocks, where you can analyze things like earnings and company performance, crypto’s value is heavily influenced by what people think of it – the hype. So, social media sentiment plays a big role.
Social media analysis: Checking platforms like Twitter, Reddit (especially subreddits dedicated to specific cryptos), and Telegram groups can give you a sense of the general mood. Are people enthusiastic? Are there lots of discussions about potential developments? Or is it mostly negativity and people selling off?
But be cautious! Social media can be easily manipulated. Pump-and-dump schemes often rely on artificially inflating the hype to drive up the price before the organizers sell, leaving latecomers with losses. Don’t solely rely on what you see online.
Beyond social media: Look at the project’s whitepaper (a document detailing the crypto’s goals and technology). Does it seem credible? Does the team behind it have experience? Research the crypto’s market capitalization (total value of all coins in circulation) to understand its size and relative position in the market. Consider the crypto’s trading volume – higher volume usually suggests more liquidity (easier to buy and sell).
Diversification is key: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Investing in multiple cryptocurrencies can reduce risk. Remember, cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile. Only invest what you can afford to lose.
What is the most accurate crypto indicator?
There’s no single “most accurate” crypto indicator; their effectiveness depends heavily on market conditions, timeframe, and the asset in question. Relying solely on any one indicator is a recipe for disaster. Successful trading involves combining multiple indicators and incorporating fundamental analysis.
However, several indicators frequently appear in traders’ arsenals:
Moving Averages (MA): Useful for identifying trends. Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are straightforward but lag; Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) react quicker to price changes. Experiment with different periods (e.g., 50-day, 200-day) to find what suits your strategy. Crossovers between different MAs (e.g., a 50-day MA crossing above a 200-day MA) often signal trend changes, but confirmations are crucial.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): A momentum oscillator that identifies overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) conditions. Divergences between price and RSI can be powerful signals, but RSI alone is not sufficient for entry/exit decisions. False signals are common.
Bollinger Bands: Show price volatility. Price bouncing off the upper or lower band can indicate potential reversal points. Narrow bands suggest low volatility, while wide bands indicate high volatility. Used best in conjunction with other indicators.
On-Balance-Volume (OBV): Tracks the cumulative volume of up and down days. Divergences between OBV and price can be early warning signs of trend reversals.
Ichimoku Cloud: A comprehensive indicator providing support/resistance levels, momentum, and trend identification. It’s complex but powerful for identifying potential entries and exits and future support/resistance.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): Shows the relationship between two moving averages. Crossovers of the MACD line and signal line generate buy/sell signals, but confirmation is key. Divergences between the MACD and price are also valuable.
Fibonacci Retracement: Based on the Fibonacci sequence. Identifies potential support and resistance levels based on key retracement percentages (e.g., 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%). Often used to determine potential profit targets or stop-loss levels.
Stochastic Oscillator: Measures the momentum of price changes. Similar to RSI, it identifies overbought and oversold conditions. It can highlight potential turning points but prone to whipsaws.
Remember: Backtesting your strategies using various indicators on historical data is crucial before risking capital. No indicator provides foolproof predictions; risk management is paramount.
How to find crypto coins before they explode?
Finding cryptocurrencies before they surge in value is tough, but here’s what I’ve learned: It’s all about digging deep. Don’t chase hype; understand the project.
First, look at what the coin actually *does*. What problem does it solve? Is it genuinely useful? A coin with a real-world application has a much better chance of success than one with just a cool name.
Next, think about the market. Is there a demand for what the coin offers? A huge, untapped market is a great sign. Think about the competition too – is this coin better or different enough to stand out?
The team behind the coin is crucial. Research the developers. Are they experienced? Do they have a proven track record? A transparent and reputable team builds trust, which is vital for a successful project. Look for things like whitepapers (detailed explanations of the project), and check if the team is actively engaging with the community.
Finally, get involved! Join online crypto communities – forums, subreddits, and Discord servers – and pay attention to social media. These places are where early adopters often discuss new projects. But be cautious – not everything you hear is true. Always do your own research!
Remember: High risk, high reward. Investing in crypto is extremely volatile. Don’t invest more than you can afford to lose. And diversification is key – don’t put all your eggs in one basket!
Who is the most reliable crypto analyst?
Determining the single “most reliable” crypto analyst is subjective and depends on individual investment strategies and risk tolerance. However, several prominent figures consistently offer valuable insights. Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum’s co-founder, provides unparalleled perspectives on Ethereum’s development and the broader decentralized finance (DeFi) landscape. His expertise is invaluable for understanding the future of smart contracts and blockchain technology. His technical understanding is unsurpassed.
Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, is a staunch Bitcoin maximalist. His focus provides a strong counterpoint to the broader crypto market and his company’s significant Bitcoin holdings offer a unique perspective on institutional adoption and long-term strategies. His analysis is particularly useful for those interested in Bitcoin’s macroeconomic implications.
Anthony Pompliano is known for his accessible explanations of complex crypto concepts. He blends technical analysis with macro-economic trends, making his insights relevant for both seasoned investors and newcomers. His educational approach is beneficial for those seeking to improve their crypto literacy.
PlanB‘s Stock-to-Flow model, while controversial, generated significant buzz in the crypto community. While not without its critics and limitations, it sparked important discussions around Bitcoin’s scarcity and potential price appreciation. It’s important to consider this model alongside other analytical frameworks.
Andreas M. Antonopoulos, a renowned security expert and author, focuses on the technical and philosophical aspects of Bitcoin and blockchain technology. His deep understanding of cryptographic principles and network security is crucial for evaluating the risks and opportunities within the crypto space. His contributions provide a critical eye to the security implications of various crypto projects.
Finally, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), CEO of Binance, offers insights into the operational aspects of the crypto market. His perspective on exchange dynamics, regulatory challenges, and trading volumes provides a valuable, albeit potentially biased, view of the industry landscape. Consider his insights in the context of his position and Binance’s interests.
Which website is best for crypto analysis?
Picking the “best” crypto analysis website is subjective, depending on your trading style and needs. However, a robust toolkit should incorporate diverse data sources. Here’s my take:
Essential Tools for Sophisticated Crypto Analysis:
- On-Chain Data & Analytics: Beyond simple price charts, delve into on-chain metrics like transaction volume, active addresses, and mining hash rate. Platforms like Glassnode and IntoTheBlock provide invaluable insights into network activity and potential market shifts. Understanding these often reveals trends before they’re reflected in price.
- Sentiment Analysis: Don’t underestimate the power of sentiment. Tools like LunarCrush track social media mentions and engagement, offering a gauge of market mood. Combine this with news analysis from sources like CryptoPanic to paint a fuller picture.
- Fundamental Analysis Resources: A balanced approach includes scrutinizing project fundamentals. Look for platforms providing detailed information on tokenomics, team expertise, technological innovation, and real-world utility. Whitepaper analysis is crucial.
Specific Tools Mentioned & My Perspective:
- Coindar (Crypto Events Calendar): Essential for staying abreast of significant events impacting prices.
- The Coin Perspective (Coin Comparison): Useful for quick comparisons but remember to validate data with other sources.
- Cointree (Fear & Greed Index & Daily Bytes): The Fear & Greed Index provides a sentiment overview, but interpret it cautiously. Daily Bytes can be a helpful news summary.
- LunarCrush (Social Signals): Useful but remember social sentiment isn’t always predictive.
- Coin360 (Visual Overview): Excellent for a quick market snapshot, but shouldn’t be your sole source.
- CryptoPanic (News Filtering): Aids in sifting through the noise; crucial for staying updated on market-moving news.
- CryptoMiso (Developer Activity): A crucial metric for evaluating project longevity and viability. High developer activity often suggests ongoing development and community support.
Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct thorough due diligence before making any investment decisions.
How to measure risk in investment?
Measuring investment risk isn’t a simple tick-box exercise; it’s a nuanced process. While alpha, beta, R-squared, standard deviation, and the Sharpe ratio are common metrics, their individual interpretations are limited. Understanding their interplay is crucial.
Standard deviation quantifies price volatility – higher deviation means higher price swings, and thus, higher risk. But high volatility doesn’t automatically equate to bad investment; consider growth stocks.
Beta measures volatility relative to the market. A beta above 1 indicates higher volatility than the benchmark; below 1 suggests lower volatility. However, beta alone ignores potential downside risk.
R-squared shows how well an investment’s returns align with a benchmark. A high R-squared suggests the investment’s price movements track the benchmark closely, reducing some uncertainty. A low R-squared, however, might signal unique risk factors.
Alpha represents excess returns compared to a benchmark, adjusted for risk (beta). Positive alpha indicates the investment outperformed its benchmark, suggesting skill or luck. Negative alpha suggests underperformance.
The Sharpe ratio considers risk-adjusted return; it balances returns against volatility. A higher Sharpe ratio signifies better risk-adjusted performance. However, it relies heavily on the chosen benchmark and the accuracy of its risk-free rate assumption.
Beyond these five, consider downside risk measures like Sortino ratio (focuses on downside deviation), maximum drawdown, and Value at Risk (VaR). These provide a more complete picture by specifically addressing potential losses.
Direct comparison of investments necessitates using the *same* metrics and benchmarks. Comparing a high-growth tech stock to a blue-chip dividend stock using only standard deviation is misleading. Context is king.
Finally, remember that historical data informs, but doesn’t predict, future risk. Qualitative factors, market sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions significantly influence risk profiles.
What is the best crypto fundamental analysis website?
CoinMarketCap remains a cornerstone for fundamental crypto analysis, offering a broad overview of market capitalization, pricing, volume, supply, and historical performance across thousands of assets. However, relying solely on CMC is limiting. You need to delve deeper. Consider supplementing its data with on-chain analysis tools like Glassnode or IntoTheBlock for a clearer picture of network activity and adoption. These platforms provide insights into things like active addresses, transaction volume, and exchange balances – crucial indicators often missed by surface-level analysis. Don’t just look at the price; understand *why* the price moves. Analyze the project’s whitepaper critically, scrutinize the team’s experience and track record, and assess the competitive landscape. Ultimately, fundamental analysis is about uncovering the intrinsic value of a cryptocurrency, a process far exceeding simple price charting. CoinMarketCap provides the foundation, but rigorous independent research is essential for informed decision-making.
How to know if a coin will pump?
Predicting a coin’s pump is impossible, but increasing your odds involves shrewd analysis. Volume spikes preceding significant price increases are a key indicator, but focus on sustained, unusually high volume, not just fleeting surges. Look for unusual trading activity across multiple exchanges – a single exchange spike is often manipulation.
Social media sentiment is a lagging indicator; extreme bullishness suggests a potential top, not a guaranteed pump. Instead, focus on identifying emerging narratives and early adoption signs – a sudden surge in positive sentiment coupled with sustained volume is more telling. Beware of coordinated pump-and-dump schemes often evident in artificially inflated social media hype.
Significant news, partnerships, or listings on major exchanges are catalysts, but their impact is highly variable. Consider the actual quality and relevance of the news, not just the headline. A seemingly positive announcement might be already priced in, or reflect a short-term hype.
On-chain metrics such as whale accumulation (large wallet addresses accumulating coins), increasing active addresses, and changes in transaction volume can offer insights into underlying demand. These, however, require expertise and sophisticated tools to interpret accurately; simply observing a rise in active addresses isn’t sufficient.
Bitcoin’s price action strongly influences altcoin markets. A Bitcoin bull run often fuels altcoin pumps, while a Bitcoin crash can trigger widespread sell-offs. Correlation is not causation, though; look for altcoins with strong fundamentals that decouple from Bitcoin’s price during bear markets.
Tokenomics (token distribution, inflation rate, utility) and project fundamentals (team expertise, technology, use case) are crucial long-term factors. A pump based solely on hype without solid underlying value is unsustainable. Analyze the token’s utility, competition, and market positioning carefully.
Developer activity (GitHub commits, community engagement) signals ongoing development and project viability. Consistent updates and active community involvement suggest a healthier project less prone to rug pulls or abandonment, influencing long-term value, not necessarily immediate pumps.
Remember, risk management is paramount. Diversification, position sizing, and stop-loss orders are essential to mitigate losses even with the most accurate predictions. No analysis guarantees a successful pump; treat all predictions with healthy skepticism.
